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- Why Can't You Take a Risk?
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I was re-reading different chapters of our book something I do on a regular basis. It keeps me focused and aware of the ten rules of the honeybee hive. Knowing the probability of risk is the key to understanding why you may be having a problem taking one.
In the book, I discuss a program announced by the government in Ontario, Canada, some 14 years ago to encourage micro-generators to create solar power that was to be fed back into the grid. The government would pay us 80 cents for each KWH we produced even though they were charging the public 7 or 8 cents to buy it. It was a 20-year contract guarantee.
When I did the numbers, it was a complete payout of the costs after 7 years. For 13 years, it would be pure profit. I did my research, and it still seemed too good to be true when banks lined up offering low-interest loans for 100% of the cost and only the solar panels as security.
I applied for five contracts, got them, and started producing electricity. During the open contract period, I tried to talk everyone I knew into getting a contract. It was a guarantee. All I heard were barriers. What if the government stops paying? What if……. Not one person I told of this opportunity did a deal. I continue to collect income from that solar opportunity, and even in one case where we sold the building, I kept the “roof rights” and collected that income as well.
The risk calculated by all those I talked with was well out of proportion to the actual. I calculated that there was a 99.9% chance the project would work, and it has. In their minds, it was a 99% chance of failure. It was just plain stupid.
Most of the population calls everything a risk. That is why they make for exceptional employees and horrible investors or entrepreneurs.
To test the theory again, I offered someone any of our development lots in NS for $30,000. The lots are appraised at $90,000, and we had just sold one for that price, so clearly, the $30,000 I offered to sell it to them for was a 99.9% chance of a win. The first thing they asked was, “When did I think the value would go up?” Seriously, keep working for other people and collect your pension. You don’t have it. They couldn’t pull the trigger on my offer. I knew that, but I was just testing my theory again.
Anything worthwhile requires some level of risk. Who you decide to marry, what freedom you give your children, what you do with your money, and who you work for are all risk-taking behaviours. The difference between those common risks and my solar or lot offer is that most people don’t see those other decisions as risks. But there are significant risks with the downside of choosing the wrong life partner, for example, a lifetime of misery or poverty after divorce.
Bees understand the probability of major life decisions and investments. When they pull the trigger, the probability of choosing a new home hits 75%, and they act.
To become an investor, you must find the probability to lead you to action. Will a 99.9% solar or lot purchase opportunity be enough for you?
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